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WHITE PAPERSeptember 21, 2026

Dealership service retention white paper: return rates on near-new vehicles fell from 72% to 54% in two years, and the stated cause is unexpected cost, which is a communication failure rather than a pricing one.

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Four dealership service series: three falling, one risingThree measures fall. Service visits handled by dealerships are down 12 per cent against 2018. Dealer share of all service visits fell from 35 per cent in 2021 to 30 per cent. The return rate for vehicles two years old or newer fell from 72 per cent in 2023 to 54 per cent in 2025. One measure rises over the same period: service visits per owner per year went from 2.3 in 2021 to 2.5 in 2023. Demand for the work did not fall while the dealer share of it did, which locates the loss at the point where an owner chooses between a dealership and an independent repairer.THREE SERIES FALLService visits handled2018 → 20252018 baseline→−12%Dealer share of all service visits2021 → 202535%→30%Return rate, vehicles ≤2 years old2023 → 202572%→54%ONE RISES, WHICH IS WHAT RULES OUT A DEMAND EXPLANATIONService visits per owner per year2021 → 20232.3→2.5The work is still happening. It is happening somewhere else.
Dealership service series. Visit volume, market share and retention fall while visits per owner rise. Figures published by Cox Automotive and reported by Automotive News.
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